In 1992, Sky won the rights to broadcast the newly established Premier League in a £304m five-year deal. Two years later, Duncanson predicted that the power broadcasters had over football would proliferate to an extent not yet seen.
“If you think television is too powerful in sport now, in 10 years’ time you won’t believe the control that they’ll have,” he said.
Duncanson also speculated that fans in 2004 would watch football through subscription and pay-per-view services.
“He’ll watch it on his own local Newcastle cable station because the BBC or ITV won’t be able to afford the rights to the game,” he said.
“The cable operator will have paid a fortune for it, but he knows he’ll get the money back from subscription.
“It’s probably going to be done on pay-per-view, so you’ll put a card and a number on your telephone, tap it in, five quid docked from your account, the game pops up.”
More three decades on, subscription-funded broadcasters continue to be the gatekeepers of top-flight English football.
In 2023, the Premier League agreed a record four-year £6.7bn domestic television deal for Sky and TNT to show up to 270 live games a season from 2025-26.
Reflecting on his original predictions, Duncanson said it “wasn’t rocket science” to see where things were going “if you followed the money”.
“Sky had changed the game by spending so much money on rights because it established them as a major satellite power, and they continue to this day,” he said.
Casting his eye towards the future, Duncanson sees the nature of subscription viewing changing.
“We’re all going to learn a new acronym: DTC – direct-to-customer,” he said.
“There is a bit of a push-back now with subscription prices rising, from football fans who say, ‘Why do I have to pay so much money? I don’t want to watch cricket or rugby or motorsport or whatever. I just want to watch my team play.'”
Taking its cue from the NFL, NBA and Formula 1, Duncanson believes the Premier League will increasingly evolve into a rights holder and broadcast platform.
“The Premier League next season are going to start their own channel in Singapore. If that’s a success, you can see that being rolled out into other territories,” he said.
“You’ll be watching ‘Premflix’ or ‘Fifa TV’ or ‘Uefa+’, or any of them who have got that level of valuable football.”
