WTA Berlin Best Bets Including Wang vs Gauff

Undoubtedly, I owe our readers an apology for yesterday’s column. Not only did the predictions blow up in my face, but I also messed up by not giving Marketa Vondrousova her flowers. A reader rightly pointed out that Vondrousova winning the 2023 Wimbledon on grass is likely a touch more important than her 15-14 record. I was humbled pretty thoroughly yesterday, and I want to apologize and pledge to bounce back. I will also start noting important victories if they tie into the playing surface or tournament in question. 

To that end, I’ve brought Vondrousova back for another round of best bets. I plan for these to go much better than yesterday’s. So, here are my best bets for the round of 16 of the WTA Berlin Open. Let me know in the comments if you agree, disagree, or if I failed to mention something important.

WTA Berlin Open

Shnaider – Vondrousova: Time 10:00

H2H: 1-0

Marketa Vondrousova is an immensely talented individual who not only came in second at the French Open when she was a teenager but also won the 2023 Wimbledon Championship as an unseeded player. Vondrousova also won a silver medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Diana Shnaider has an Olympic silver medal of her own, which she won in 2024 with Mirra Andreeva as a member of the Individual Neutral Athletes. The INA was comprised of individuals who were from Russia or Belarus. Those two countries were banned from the Olympics due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Best Bet to Make

Vondrousova is not here by mistake, having beaten Madison Keys in straight sets, even if both of them went to a tiebreak. The way she handled Keys was a thing of beauty. Despite only having a first service percentage at 53% to Keys’ 70%, Vondrousova was able to come out on top due to the discrepancy in winning percentages on second serves. Vondrousova was a fantastic 71%, whilst Keys was only at 35%, a 37% drop from her 72% first service winning percentage. By the absurd law of transitive properties, Vondrousova just beat Keys, who beat Shnaider at Queen’s Club.

That being said, Vondrousova winning is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Vondrousova winning @2.14 @Pinnacle

Samsonova – Pegula: Time 16:00

H2H: 1-4

Jessica Pegula has almost never had a problem putting Liudmila Samsonova away at 4-1 all-time against her. Almost. The one match she did lose was at the 2021 Wimbledon, and it also happens to be their only match on grass. The two did play earlier this year, with Pegula taking the match in straight sets in the second round at Dubai. Pegula isn’t in her best form of the year right now, and she hasn’t been since Charleston.  Conversely, Samsonova is 7-3 in her last ten matches.

Best Bet to Make

 I like Samsonova in this match, but the books disagree. The reason I like – is that she has two tournament wins on grass, and it’s her 4th-best surface. For all her winning, Pegula only has one tournament victory on grass, and that was right here in Berlin last year. That said, Samsonova also has a tournament victory here at WTA Berlin back in 2021, so both of these ladies know how to win on grass and on Berlin’s grass. Pegula just isn’t in her best form right now. She’s 5-5 in her last ten matches while Samsonova is 7-3 in her last ten, and one of those was a finals loss at Strasbourg to Elena Rybakina. She’s playing better and seems up for the challenge. The smart bet is on Pegula, and it’s still going to be profitable at 1.68, but don’t be shocked if she drops this. Underdogs have dominated this tournament, but playing it safe is always wise. 

That being said, Pegula winning is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Pegula winning @1.68 @Betfair

Wang – Gauff: Time 10:00

H2H: 0-1

 Coco Gauff is coming off an incredible victory at the French Open and her match against Xinyu Wang will be her first test since that day. At 9-1 in her last ten matches, Gauff is doing her best to keep pace with Aryna Sabalenka for the world’s No. 1 ranking. While Wang isn’t even close to having the same year as Gauff, it seems to take a certain level of talent to beat her. Wang will have to show a side of herself that we haven’t seen if she wants to beat Gauff. 

Best Bet to Make

Gauff is a substantial favorite with the books, and I agree. The best way to make money off Gauff in this match is to run with the correct score. Right now, only two sites are at the 1.5 minimum we try to use as a guideline around here at LWOS. Bet365 and BetVictor offer Gauff at 1.5, and that’s about the best you’re going to get on Gauff. She’s been an absolute wrecking crew lately and I don’t see Wang lasting too long in this match. She’s well-rested and locked-in. There’s no reason this match should go three-sets. 

That being said, Gauff winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning 2:0 @1.5 @BetVictor

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

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