A few of the WNBA’s top contenders are in action on Thursday night. The 10-1 New York Liberty host the 9-4 Phoenix Mercury at 7 p.m., while Caitlin Clark and the 6-5 Indiana Fever hit the road to take on the 5-6 Golden State Valkyries at 10 p.m. ET. Both games will be streamed on Prime Video.
Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? How about the top WNBA player props? Let’s check out the best plays for Thursday, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Today’s WNBA picks:
- Mercury +10.5
- Natasha Howard 8+ rebounds
Mercury +10.5 -106 (1 unit, FD)
Are we sure New York should be laying double digits against good teams? The Liberty have been impressive to start the season, but eight of their 11 games have come against teams with losing records. The three against teams above .500? A 2-point win over the Fever, where they had to rally down 10 in the fourth quarter; a 14-point loss to the Fever and a 5-point win over the Dream, where they were down 17 in the third and by eight to start the fourth quarter. Not exactly the most convincing resume.Â
Granted, this is the second leg of a road back-to-back for the 9-4 Mercury, but at least their game yesterday was against the lowly Sun compared to a tougher team that they would have really needed to grind it out against. After Phoenix outscored Connecticut 22-9 in the first quarter, the game only got as close as a 7-point margin, as the Mercury led pretty comfortably throughout their 8-point win.Â
When the season started, New York had more depth than Phoenix. But since Liberty starter Leonie Fiebich left for EuroLeague two games ago, the Liberty bench has been disappointing. They combined for just four points last game against the Dream and 12 points the game before against the Fever. The Liberty have needed otherworldly performances from Sabrina Ionescu (34 points in each of the last two games) just to stay afloat.
Since the Mercury got their third star Kahleah Copper back two games ago, their bench has really turned it up as well. Granted, it did come against the A’ja Wilson-less Aces and the Sun, but the bench put up 28 and 35 points, respectively, in those matchups.
While Copper is still getting re-acclimated after making her season debut two games ago, the Mercury are one of the few teams that can match the Liberty’s star power. Satou Sabally (19.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG) has been incredible in her first season in Phoenix after coming over from the Wings. Alyssa Thomas has put up three straight double-doubles (averaging 13.0 PPG and 11.3 APG over that stretch) since coming back from a calf injury that caused her to miss five games.
I get being nervous about the back-to-back angle for the Mercury, but I just don’t see nearly as much separation between these two teams as the line suggests.Â
Natasha Howard 8+ rebounds +220 (0.5 units, FD)
The Valkyries are currently the WNBA’s best team in defensive rebounding percentage at 72.4% and are fifth in overall rebounding percentage at 51.6%. But those numbers are a bit misleading given Golden State’s current roster.
The Valkyries are without starting center Temi Fagbenle (6-foot-4, 6.1 rebounds per game) and starting forward Janelle Salaun (6-foot-2, 5.9 rebounds per game) because of EuroBasket, and they are the team’s second- and third-leading rebounders.Â
In their first game without them both against the Wings on Tuesday, the Valkyries got absolutely crushed on the glass. The Wings out-rebounded them 39-28, including a 13-5 advantage on offensive rebounds. And this was with the Wings missing their second-leading rebounder Maddy Siegrist (knee injury) and 6-foot-7 Teaira McCowan, their third-leading rebounder (EuroBasket).Â
When looking at Fever rebounding props, Aliyah Boston’s is 7.5 (Over -148, Under +112) and Natasha Howard’s is 5.5 (Over -158, Under +118). On the season, Boston is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game, and Howard is at 6.7. In the month of June (five games), Howard has grabbed 33 boards while Boston has racked up 30. Additionally, over that stretch, Boston has recorded at least four fouls in three of those games, while Howard hasn’t reached four fouls once. Foul trouble is a killer for betting Overs on props since it reduces playing time and opportunities to pick up stats.Â
The point is, I don’t see why Boston is -142 to get 8+ rebounds and Howard is +220. I think those two should have much closer odds to one another, particularly that Howard should be lower than +220. The one thing that scares me is the blowout potential in this game, with the Fever 11.5-point road favorites against the shorthanded Valkyries—since a blowout would also cause Howard’s minutes to drop. So I’m making this one a half-unit play instead of a full unit.Â
Overall Record: 21-20, +6.32 units
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