CLEVELAND, Ohio — In case you haven’t yet seen my latest Browns mock draft, I ran a scenario where the Browns don’t go quarterback with the second pick. I decided to use the 33rd pick to take Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe.
Despite how raw he is, particularly with his mechanics, Milroe for me is my QB3 behind Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. That puts Milroe ahead of Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, which may surprise some because Dart’s stock might put him in the first round and Milroe is likely to slide into Day 2.
But for me, I’ve never quite bought into the Dart hype.
A big problem and a borderline red flag for me is that he doesn’t seem to play as well as his peers when it comes to fourth quarter QB rating. So many NFL games come down to the fourth quarter, and you simply must play well in clutch situations to win those games.
Dart threw four interceptions in the fourth quarter in 2024. Two of those came in the final two minutes at Florida, which was a game Dart and the Rebels had to win to keep their hopes of making the College Football Playoff alive.
The Rebels lost, 24-17.
It matters for the Browns because we have to remember that part of the case against keeping Baker Mayfield long term was that he had problems coming through in the clutch, particularly in 2021.
Here’s how the top quarterbacks stack up in fourth quarter QB rating in their draft seasons. For further comparison, we included the QB ratings of some recent top quarterback ratings.
The quarterback rating rankings are according to CFBStats.com.
Jaxson Dart: 36-60 (60.0%), 515 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs, 151.77 (42nd)
Cam Ward: 65-93 (69.9%), 1,028 yards, 9 TDs, 1 INT, 192.52 (6th)
Shedeur Sanders: 73-106 (68.9%), 887 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 158.41 (32nd)
Jalen Milroe: 39-66 (59.1%), 596 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 150.85 (45th)
Jayden Daniels (2023): 42-57 (73.7%), 831 yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 247.02 (1st)
Bo Nix (2023): 45-55 (81.8%), 506 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 183.10 (15th)
C.J. Stroud (2022): 39-60 (65.0%), 561 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, 164.37 (28th)
Now, I want to be fair on Dart’s behalf. Dart’s quarterback rating in the fourth quarter of the last two seasons is still better than Milroe’s.
But I feel you can excuse that because of just how raw Milroe is as a passer and how much development he needs behind the scenes.
Dart is a more polished passer.
Also, Dart’s QB rating in the fourth quarter in 2023 (186.64) was better than Nix’s. So it’s a sign that he can play well in fourth quarters.
But in 2022, Dart’s fourth-quarter QB rating was a meager 136.54, which was 86th among qualified passers. To get an idea, it was worse than Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s 137.31 rating in the fourth quarter of his draft-eligible season, and the Browns attached a fifth-round pick to send DTR to the Eagles for Kenny Pickett.
So that’s two seasons out of three where Dart has not performed well in the fourth quarter. It’s not a good omen for NFL success if you’re struggling to perform in high-leverage situations in college.
That’s why it’s a little tough to get behind the idea of the Browns drafting Jaxson Dart.
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