Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Mariners limp into their spring training home having salvaged just one game in a series against the lowly Angels after being swept by the Orioles. It’s been a painful slide for Seattle, but the Diamondbacks are fresh off a brutal three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds, despite sweeping the Braves in the previous series. This series lines up between two teams suffering both slings and arrows to the extent that would make Billy Shakes himself blush.

Spare a moment to pity the D-Backs, trapped in the NL West with the powerhouses of the Dodgers and Padres, but also a surprisingly good Giants team. They also just lost the rock of their rotation in Corbin Burnes, their biggest off-season acquisition, who now requires TJ surgery. Generally I do not feel overly sorry for the residents of the Grand Canyon State, but in this specific instance, I do. The loss of Burnes only exacerbates the issues the D-Backs have in their starting rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, the two big free agent signings from the 2023-24 offseason, have been either injured or hugely disappointing and Zac Gallen has taken a pretty big step back this year.

This is, and remains, a good lineup, driven by Seattle’s own five-tool son Corbin Carroll, who it is very hard to root against, but root against him we must for these three games. He’s backed by former Mariner Ketel Marte, Jerry Dipoto’s personal sleep paralysis demon. Former contact merchant turned power hitter Geraldo Perdomo hits out of the three-hole and is having an All-Star season, and good for him, really. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez (miss you forever, Geno) provide some big thump–and big swing-and-miss–in the middle of the lineup, along with Pavin Smith. Truthfully, the D-Backs lineup is full of hitters top to bottom, so the Mariners will need to make hay against their pitching to win games in this series.

Probable Pitchers

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Since returning from a long stint in Korea back in 2019, Merrill Kelly has carved out a very successful major league career across the last seven seasons. It hasn’t been flashy, but above average skills across the board combined with a deep repertoire has given him plenty of ways to attack batters. His best pitch is a hard changeup that features a ton of sinking action. Even though it only has three miles per hour separation from his fastball, the movement profile generates a ton of swings and misses. He’s also got a pair of solid breaking balls to round out his pitch mix.

As a former top prospect, Brandon Pfaadt’s reputation far exceeds his actual production through the first three seasons of his big league career. His career ERA sits above five, though his FIP is nearly a run lower and his xFIP even lower than that. He’s got some solid secondary offerings — two breaking balls and a changeup — but the problem is a fastball that’s just far too hittable. Among all four-seam fastballs thrown at least 100 times this year, Pfaadt’s has the tenth worst expected wOBA allowed. That’s mostly due to his control over command profile; he’ll fill the strike zone with his pitches, but they’re not particularly well placed and batters can usually count on seeing a pitch in the heart of the zone to crush.

A long list of minor injuries have sapped Eduardo Rodriguez of a lot of his effectiveness since his peak with the Red Sox half a decade ago. His fastball velocity has settled in around 91 mph over the last few years after sitting up toward 93 mph in Boston. His changeup has mostly maintained its effectiveness which has allowed him to maintain his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. His biggest issue this year is an outrageously high .367 BABIP and a career low groundball rate combining to drive his ERA up near seven. If you believe in his peripherals, that mark is bound to drop sometime soon.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners remain behind the Astros, who handled the Guardians over their last set and get to continue beating up on weak teams as they take on the White Sox this week. The Rangers got swept by the Rays but then won a series against the Nationals, something the Mariners couldn’t do; they’ll now take on the Twins. The A’s were the latest victim of the surging Orioles, although they at least managed to win one game; they’ll go on to play the Angels this week.