Paul vs. Garin, Tabilo vs. Brooksby

Top-four seeds Tommy Paul and Alejandro Tabilo will kick off their Houston campaigns during second-round action on Wednesday. Paul opens with Cristian Garin, while Tabilo is going up against Jenson Brooksby.

(1) Tommy Paul vs. (WC) Cristian Garin

Paul and Garin will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they clash in round two of the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship on Wednesday. Garin leads the head-to-head series 3-1 (2-1 on the main tour) and has won both of their previous clay-court contests. The Chilean prevailed 5-7, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 at the 2022 French Open and 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 at the 2023 Rome Masters.

This is certainly a winnable match for Garin given the surface, but at the same time Paul has a good chance to turn the tide. After all, the 13th-ranked American has become a much, much better player since he last faced Garin. And it has to be said that Garin–in part due to some injury problems–has gotten worse. In fact, the 28-year-old has slipped all the way down to No. 133 in the world. Garin did well to defeat Alexander Ritschard on Monday, but Paul represents a massive step up in competition.

Pick: Paul in 3

(3) Alejandro Tabilo vs. (Q) Jenson Brooksby

The 2025 season has been a disaster so far for Tabilo, who arrives in Houston with a horrendous 2-8 record. However, a clay-court 250 tournament should be just what the doctor ordered. It is true that the 32nd-ranked Chilean is equally good if not even better on hard courts, but he would rather face Brooksby and a whole host of other players in this draw on the red stuff. Tabilo is a two-time ATP finalist on clay and he made a run to the semifinals of the 2024 Rome Masters.

Brooksby is finally back from injury and suspension, trying to resurrect his ranking from its current perch of No. 507. Early returns have been somewhat encouraging, highlighted by a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in Indian Wells and three victories already in Houston. After qualifying for the main draw, the 24-year-old American dismissed Taro Daniel 6-4, 6-4 on Monday. This should be an entertaining battle, but on clay Tabilo may have just enough game to get across the finish line.

Pick: Tabilo in 3