Padres at Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (39-33) and the LA Dodgers (45-29) play the third game of a 4-game series Wednesday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 4-1

The Padres have had a tough time in LA trying to contain the offense of the Dodgers. LA took Monday’s opener 6-3 as a moderate favorite (-165) with the Over (8.5) cashing. The Dodgers followed up with an 8-6 win Tuesday as heavy favorites (-210) with the Over (10) hitting again in what was a bullpen game for LA.

In Tuesday’s game, Dodgers OF Andy Pages was the hitting hero, going 4-for-4 with a pair of solo home runs, 3 runs scored and 3 RBIs. C Will Smith was also big at the plate, going 3-for-4 with a 2-run homer, a double and 2 runs scored. 2B Tommy Edman drove in a pair of runs from the 9-hole, going 1-for-3 with a double.

For the Padres, they had a total of 9 hits, with 1B Luis Arraez picking up 3 of them in 5 at-bats with a run scored and an RBI. OF Gavin Sheets drove in a pair of runs, while pinch-hitter 1B Trenton Brooks clubbed a 2-run homer in the seventh inning for his first MLB clout.

The Dodgers are expected to welcome back RHP Emmet Sheehan (elbow) from Tommy John surgery. He hasn’t pitched since the 2023 season when he made 11 starts with 64 strikeouts across 60 1/3 innings. He made 4 minor-league rehab starts, logging 11 1/3 innings.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Stephen Kolek vs. RHP Emmet Sheehan

Kolek (3-2, 3.50 ERA) makes his ninth start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 46 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 R (5 R), 7 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 5 K in 5-1 road setback vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
• 2025 road stats: 2-1, 1.75 (36 IP, 7 ER), 2 HR, 15 BB, 27 K, 1.22 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 in 6 starts (1 CG)
• Career vs. Dodgers: 0-0, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0 H, 3 BB, 2 K in 4 relief appearances in 2024

Sheehan (4-1, 4.92 ERA) made 11 starts in his 2023 rookie season. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (2 solo HR), 0 BB, 10 K in 8-2 road victory vs. Colorado Rockies Sept. 27, 2023
• Last appearance: 3 2/3 relief IP, 3 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 11-2 home loss vs. Diamondbacks Oct. 7, 2023, in Game 1 of NLDS
• Has never faced Padres

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Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Dodgers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Dodgers 5

The PADRES (+165) were kept at an arm’s distance in Tuesday’s game, as they just couldn’t get over the hump.

The Padres are a decent bounce-back candidate in Wednesday’s matchup, facing a pitcher making his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. Sheehan is likely to be a little rusty, and he certainly might not be crisp. San Diego counters with Kolek, who has been a godsend on the road.

The PADRES +1.5 (-125) are the play if you’re a little on the conservative side and just can’t bring yourself to back the road team straight up. After the past 2 days and back-to-back losses, nobody can blame you.

The Dodgers offense consistently finds a way to get the job done, especially against Padres pitching. However, Sheehan may show some rust after a long layoff, and San Diego’s offense is just as dangerous.

OVER 9.5 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Over has connected in each of the first 2 games of this series, including 14 combined runs Tuesday. The Over is 4-0-1 in the past 5 games for the Dodgers, while going 7-1-1 in the past 9 outings.

The Padres have cashed high in 4 in a row, averaging 6.0 runs per game on offense, while allowing 6.0 RPG, too.

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