Padres at Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (39-31) and the LA Dodgers (43-29) open a 4-game series Monday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 2-1

The Dodgers took 2 of 3 games from the Padres in the first series of the season at Petco Park in San Diego last Monday through Wednesday, with the favorite cashing in 2 of 3 games, while the Over also hit in 2 of the contests.

Also, as a reminder, if you’re worried about a potential issue or postponement due to the ongoing protests and demonstrations in downtown Los Angeles, Dodger Stadium sits outside of the curfew order. While fans getting to the game, especially via public transportation, could certainly be affected, the games have been going on as scheduled.

San Diego has dropped its past two series — one at home against the Dodgers and one on the road against the division-rival Arizona Diamondbacks. The Padres dropped 2 of 3 games in Phoenix over the weekend, although they outscored the Snakes 16-15 because of an 8-2 rout in Sunday’s series finale behind RHP Nick Pivetta.

On Sunday, Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr. set the table all day long, finishing 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles, three runs scored, an RBI and a stolen base at the top of the San Diego order. 2B Jake Cronenworth had a 2-run homer, while C Elias Diaz had a pair of hits in 4 at-bats, including a solo home run from the ninth spot of the order.

The Dodgers took 2 of 3 games from the hated San Francisco Giants, including a 5-4 victory on Sunday Night Baseball as moderate favorites (-175) as the total (9) pushed at most shops. On Sunday, OF Andy Pages delivered the biggest blow for the home side, launching a 3-run homer in the bottom of the fifth to turn a 3-2 deficit into a 5-3 lead — one LA never gave back.

All eyes will be on the mound for LA as RHP Shohei Ohtani makes his long-awaited Dodgers pitching debut. It will be his first time on the mound since August 2023 — 664 days ago, to be exact — when he was still with the Los Angeles Angels.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Dylan Cease vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani

Cease (2-5, 4.28 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 75 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 11 K in 11-1 home victory vs. Dodgers last Tuesday
• 2025 road stats: 0-3, 5.65 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 3 HR, 14 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 2-1, 1.95 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0 HR, 39 K, 1.37 WHIP, 12.7 K/9 in 5 starts

Ohtani (10-5, 3.14 ERA in 2023) last made 23 starts with the Angels in 2023. He had a 1.06 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 132 innings across 23 starts (1 CG).

• Last start: No-decision, 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 26-pitch appearance vs. Cincinnati Reds cut short by injury Aug. 23, 2023
• Career (pitching) vs. Padres: 1 road start (July 4, 2023), loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H (2 HR), 5 BB, 5 K in 8-5 setback with Angels

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Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:51 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dodgers -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-160) | Dodgers -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Dodgers 4

The PADRES (+125) are worth a look behind Cease, as he and the visitors look to come up Interstate 5 and spoil the return of Ohtani to the mound.

Cease twirled 7 scoreless frames last week against LA, and he always seems to get amped when facing Dodger Blue, turning in a 1.95 ERA in 27 2/3 career innings.

We don’t know how Ohtani will look on the mound after nearly 2 full years away from the role, but he is a special player, and it won’t be long before he is dominating again.

The PADRES +1.5 (-160) aren’t a bad play if you need a little insurance, especially if you’re ultra-conservative and worried about the superstar Ohtani returning to the hill.

Again, Cease beat the Dodgers last week, posting 7 scoreless frames at Petco. But, nobody can blame you for doubting a repeat, as he has struggled on the road, too.

OVER 9 (-105) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.

First off, the Over hit in 2 of 3 meetings last week in San Diego — traditionally more of a hitter’s park. LA has gone Over in 5 of its past 7 games, and the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 at Dodger Stadium.

For the Padres, the Over has a slight 4-2 edge in the past 6 games, while going 6-2-1 in the past 9 encounters in this SoCal series.

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