Coming back from Tommy John surgery and just hitting the ground running is a lot more difficult than we tend to think. Oh sure, in the long run, most guys tend to come back from Tommy John looking more or less like they did before the injury eventually, which can make it hard to remember how rocky the road back can be for a lot of guys.
We’ve gotten a lot of examples of that this season. Sandy Alcantara has struggled mightily, Felix Bautista hasn’t been the same dominant force, and Shane McClanahan hasn’t even been able to get back on a mound after dealing with a separate arm injury; the jury is out on Eury Perez, but it hasn’t been an overwhelmingly dominant first couple of starts back so far. All of those guys should be good Fantasy options in the future, but they haven’t stepped on the mound and immediately dominated like we hoped and, frankly, expected.
It’s important to keep expectations in check for guys coming back from major injuries, in other words. And that’s especially true for someone like Emmet Sheehan, who hardly has a track record comparable to any of those other guys, with just 60.1 innings of a 4.92 ERA to his name at the MLB level back in 2023. But he gave us an awful lot of reasons to get excited about with his season debut against the Padres Wednesday.
Making his first start since September of 2023, Sheehan only pitched four innings on 65 pitches, but he dominated in those four innings. He allowed one run on three hits, while striking out six and, perhaps most importantly (if you’ve been watching Alcantara closely), zero walks.
Sheehan’s velocity was basically right where it was prior to the injury – his changeup was notably up 2.5 mph, with a different movement profile that suggests it’s an entirely new pitch – but the solid command was probably the biggest thing. It wasn’t pinpoint control, but he generally did a good job keeping the fastball up and the changeups down; there were a few sliders in the middle of the strike zone, which led to some loud contact, so that’s one place to improve in his next time out.
Sheehan wasn’t perfect, but he looked pretty good. He forced 10 swinging strikes on 65 pitches while flashing an impressive four-pitch mix, and that was coming off a rehab assignment where he struck out 21 in 11.1 innings of work. And, with the Dodgers’ injuries in the rotation, there should be room for him to stick around for as long as he deserves it.
Is Sheehan a must-add pitcher coming off this start? I wouldn’t go that far; the Dodgers are going to be careful with his workload, so I wouldn’t expect many quality starts, which limits his upside in points leagues. And those tend to be shallower, with 12-team leagues typically rostering only around 250 players total. In deeper leagues than that, I’m looking to take a flier on Sheehan and the upside he has shown. Stick him on the bench for his next scheduled start in Colorado and let’s see if he can build on it.
Here’s what else you need to know about from Wednesday’s action around MLB:
Thursday’s waiver-wire targets
Chase Burns, SP, Reds (61%) – Burns made his second start at Triple-A Wednesday and continued to look like the very best pitching prospect in baseball. He racked up 17 whiffs on 88 pitches, while averaging 98.5 mph on his four-seamer and generating 12 whiffs on 24 swings with his slider. He has 14 strikeouts in his first 12.1 innings of work at Triple-A, and at this point, I’m just not sure he’s going to be challenged until he gets to the majors. He has thrown 66 pitches this season after throwing 100 in college in 2024, so there should be plenty of runway for him to make it through to the end of the season, and the Reds really need him with Hunter Greene on the IL. I think we’re going to see him before the All-Star break, and I know Scott White agrees with me – in his latest Prospects Report column, he has upgraded Burns to be the top pitching prospect to stash from the minors.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (74%) – It’s all happening. Kurtz homered for the third time in four games Wednesday (he only had a double Tuesday) and has now homered eight times in his past 20 games. Kurtz was a hugely hyped prospect who got off to a slow start (wouldn’t be the first), but the upside to be a difference maker has always been there, and it looks like he’s figuring it out. I know being patient with young players when they struggle can be tough, but Kurtz is the kind of talent you should absolutely be buying into when it looks like he’s figuring it out. And it does.
Jo Adell, OF, Angels (52%) – As Jay Jaffe wrote on FanGraphs.com earlier this week, Adell is starting to figure it out. He showed flashes last season, but the underlying skill set looks even stronger so far this season, and the production is starting to catch up. He hit another homer Wednesday, his 12th since the start of May, a stretch during which he is hitting .240 (okay, that’s not great) but with a .326 OBP and .547 slugging percentage, and even two steals. Adell is hitting the ball hard and has the lowest strikeout rate of his career, leading to a career-best .264 expected batting average. If he can get there while continuing to hit for power, there’s some serious utility here. At least while he’s hot, why not add him and see if it’s for real?
Addison Barger, 3B, Blue Jays (60%) – Barger didn’t homer Wednesday, but he did still manage a big game, going 3 for 4 with two doubles and a walk. And he did it while starting against a lefty, something the Blue Jays are letting him do more of lately as he continues to be a key part of their lineup. He is hitting .275/.335/.515 for the season, which is impressive enough, but his underlying numbers suggest he’s actually deserved even better than that, thanks to a 93.7 mph average exit velocity and 51.2% hard-hit rate, truly massive numbers. It’s still a limited sample size, but with the playing time concerns melting away with every extra-base hit, I just don’t see much reason not to buy in, just in case this is for real.
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