A weak front will enter New England from the west, sparking a handful of thunderstorms across Northern New England and Western Mass. Thursday afternoon and evening. A pocket of dry air by the coast should help break down the storms and keep Boston dry outside of a lingering sprinkle.
Clouds enter the region shortly after sunset — a red sunset most likely — with lows slipping to the mid- and upper 60s.
The setup — heat, humidity, and hazy skies
The massive dome of high pressure will break down and shift east on Thursday, but not before transforming the region into a typical hot and muggy summer day. There will be a decent southwesterly flow that will push moist air into the region ahead of a weak front approaching, setting up the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across Western and Central New England. Much of the day will be mostly sunny but haze will stick around to block out the sun a touch.
The line of scattered storms will likely dry out by the time they reach Boston and the rest of the coast — all of I-95 shouldn’t see anything more than a spot sprinkle. But wherever they do form farther west, there could be a decent brief downpour, gusty winds, and small hail. Rain totals should not exceed more than a half inch.
Temperatures are set to surge as the southerly flow will squeeze with the approaching frontal boundary, prompting a moderate flow to make the 90s a real shot for Boston. Most of Southern New England will see the upper 80s with a smattering of low 90s.
The record daily high for Boston on Thursday is 96 degrees, set in 1919. But a few tied or new records could be set west of I-495.
One thing you’ll for sure notice is the muggy air. It’ll feel like a peak summer day with dew points well into the 60s, making it feel a bit uncomfortable. Dew points in the 60s with hot temperatures make the air very buoyant and easy to lift. That’s what’ll happen with thunderstorms Thursday afternoon when the front, holding more dense air will lift warm, moist air vertically and spark thunderstorms.
Wildfire smoke will start to lift during the evening Thursday.
I wish I wasn’t writing this, but it does appear that we’re in for some rain for the 13th weekend in a row in Greater Boston with Saturday circled on the calendar. Saturday morning looks to be the highest chance for rain with the afternoon and evening in better shape to stay dry. Sunday should have a good shot of staying completely dry.
Greater Boston: Mostly sunny with hazy skies. Highs build close to 90 degrees. Dew points into the low 60s making it feel muggy. A chance for a spot shower late with increasing clouds at night as lows slip to the mid-60s.
Southeastern Mass.: Mostly sunny with a slight breeze. Hazy skies remain, with highs in the low 80s along the coast, jumping to the upper 80s inland. A low chance for a sprinkle late under partly cloudy skies as lows drop to the mid-60s.
Central/Western Mass.: Mostly sunny with hazy skies. Heat builds highs into the 90s from Worcester to Springfield. Berkshires to the mid-80s. A scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday evening from Berkshire County to Worcester. Lows to the low 60s under partly cloudy skies.
Cape and Islands: Seeing mostly sunny skies blend with haze as highs reach the upper 70s and low 80s. An onshore breeze to about 10 mph. Increasing clouds late in the evening with lows to the mid-60s.
Rhode Island: Hot and hazy under mostly cloudy skies. Highs to the upper 80s. Westerly to Newport stalls in the low 80s. Increasing clouds late in the evening with a near-zero chance for a sprinkle. Lows to the mid-60s.
New Hampshire: Summer heat with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Mostly sunny skies with haze still sticking around. The a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Thursday afternoon and early evening. Lows to the upper 50s and low 60s.
Vermont/Maine: Mostly sunny across both states most of the day with hazy skies. Highs to the upper 80s and low 90s. Clouds build across Vermont in the afternoon, later for Maine, as a front sparks a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A low chance for a severe storm in Vermont with small hail and strong wind gusts. Lows slip to the upper 50s and low 60s.
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Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.
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