ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess recently disclosed that five significant terror plots were thwarted in the past year, as he issued a stern warning about the increasing national security threats facing Australia. Burgess emphasized that the country is now confronting more severe security risks than ever before, with state-backed actions posing a greater threat to citizens.
For the first time, Burgess declassified ASIO’s security outlook for the next five years, revealing that the next half-decade will be marked by heightened volatility and danger, driven by aggressive actions from authoritarian regimes such as Russia and Iran. According to Burgess, at least three countries have actively plotted to harm people in Australia over the past year, with the threat of state-sponsored murder rising.
Burgess expressed particular concern about the increased violence targeting the Jewish community, exacerbated by the war in Gaza, and warned that extremist acts, driven by self-radicalization, are becoming more frequent. ASIO’s terror threat level was raised last year from “possible” to “probable,” reflecting the growing danger.
Burgess also highlighted the rising frequency of foreign espionage targeting Australian Defence personnel, including incidents where foreign spies have used gifts containing hidden surveillance devices to compromise national security.
Describing the current period as one of “strategic surprise and security fragility,” Burgess underscored that the security landscape is shifting dramatically. He warned that the spy game’s traditional rules are being rewritten, and previously clear red lines are now being deliberately blurred or erased.
In a significant move, the ASIO Director-General publicly detailed the agency’s outlook, calling it a “frank” and “uncomfortable” assessment. The government has also warned foreign embassies and missions about attempts to influence Australia’s upcoming federal election, including efforts to spread disinformation or organize protests.
Burgess noted that high-impact sabotage, such as cyberattacks or attacks on AUKUS nuclear submarines, is becoming more probable. He singled out authoritarian regimes, including Russia and Iran, as nations likely to pursue harmful activities against Australia. These regimes have become more reckless in their behavior, according to Burgess.
One shocking example he cited involved foreign intelligence services plotting to harm an Australian-based human rights activist. These services attempted to lure the activist to a third country to stage an “accident” designed to kill or injure them. Thanks to ASIO’s intervention, the plot was foiled before it could unfold.
The threat of foreign interference has extended to the AUKUS submarine project, with intelligence agencies working to undermine confidence in the venture and possibly sabotage it. Additionally, Australian critical infrastructure is under increasing attack by foreign cyber units, including Chinese cyber group APT40, which targets infrastructure for long-term access.
Burgess’s warning echoes concerns raised in previous threat assessments, including one in which a former Australian politician was accused of betraying the country by working with foreign spies. While Burgess refrained from naming the individual, the revelation sparked significant controversy and debate.
The coming years are expected to be challenging for Australia, as the threat landscape becomes more diverse and the tactics of both state and non-state actors become increasingly sophisticated.