When it comes to what Americans can afford, no institution looms larger than the Federal Reserve.

That is especially true as the Fed on Wednesday concludes its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the closed-door session where policymakers decide whether interest rates will remain high or begin to ease.

The Fed is widely expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking a second straight pause after a series of cuts dating back to September 2024. For households, that means monthly payments on big-ticket purchases are likely to stay elevated for now.

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The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a closed-door session where policymakers decide whether interest rates will remain high or begin to ease. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The reluctance to cut reflects the Fed’s view that inflation is still running somewhat above its target, while broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty is reinforcing the case for caution.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will share further details about the decision on Wednesday afternoon.

The nation’s central bank doesn’t set the price of groceries, cars or homes directly. But it does influence how expensive it is to borrow money, and that can make a significant difference in what families pay each month.

Right now, borrowing is costly. High interest rates mean larger monthly payments on mortgages, car loans and credit cards, even if the price of a home or vehicle hasn’t changed. 

For many Americans, that is why life can still feel unaffordable even as inflation has cooled. Prices may not be rising as quickly, but the cost of financing big purchases remains high.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to announce that the central bank will hold rates steady this week. (Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images)

That strain is especially visible in the housing and auto markets, two of the biggest expenses for most households. A home or car may cost about the same as it did a year ago, but the loan attached to it can add hundreds of dollars to the monthly bill. Consumers are often paying more not because the asset itself has become more expensive, but because the cost of borrowing did.

That backdrop has become a political liability for President Donald Trump, who campaigned on restoring affordability and easing household financial strain but now faces growing voter skepticism over whether that relief is materializing ahead of the midterm election cycle.

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President Donald Trump speaks about the military strikes against Iran on March 9, 2026, at Trump National Doral Miami. (Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo)

Trump has repeatedly pushed for lower interest rates and blamed Powell for not cutting more aggressively, even as he continues to tout a strong economy. Typically, rate cuts are used to support a slowing economy, not one that is performing well.

And if Trump was already eager for a Fed rate cut, the conflict with Iran may have further complicated the picture. Rising oil prices have revived inflation concerns, potentially giving Fed officials another reason to stay cautious.

If the Iran war drags on and energy costs remain elevated, it could cloud not just this week’s decision but the outlook for future cuts as well — prolonging the stretch of high borrowing costs that has kept pressure on household budgets.