Padres at Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (39-34) and the LA Dodgers (46-29) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 5-1

The Padres are looking to avoid the 4-game sweep after suffering a 4-3 walk-off loss Wednesday night. San Diego scored 2 runs in the top of the ninth inning to tie the game, but C Will Smith belted a pinch-hit walk-off solo homer to send the home crowd into hysterics.

San Diego had 7 hits, including doubles by SS Xander Bogaerts, 2B Jake Cronenworth and OF Bryce Johnson. LA also had 7 hits, with Smith’s being the last and final blow. C Dalton Rushing did a fine job from the 9-hole, going 1-for-2 with a double, while OF Andy Pages followed up his huge Tuesday game with a double and an RBI in 2 at-bats, raising his average to .294.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Ryan Bergert vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Bergert (1-0, 3.50 ERA) makes his fourth start (eighth appearance). The rookie has allowed 11 hits and 8 walks with 16 K’s in 19 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 8 K in 8-7 road loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
• 2025 road stats: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 15 K in 3 starts (6 appearances)
• Has never faced Dodgers

Yamamoto (6-5, 2.64 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 78 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 5 BB, 4 K in 6-2 home loss vs. San Francisco Giants Friday
• 2025 home stats: 2-3, 3.62 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 6 HR in 7 starts
• Has not faced Padres in 2025
• Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 8 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 2 starts in 2024

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Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Dodgers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (+115) | Dodgers -1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Dodgers 4

The PADRES (+200) are worth a look on the moneyline for the chance to double up.

Yamamoto opened the season strong but has cooled off considerably, especially at home, where he’s been hit hard. The Padres enter Thursday’s finale looking to avoid a 4-game sweep — and offer solid value to do just that.

The PADRES +1.5 (+115) still offer value at plus money for bettors seeking insurance after 3 straight losses to open the series. If you’re hesitant to back San Diego straight up, no one can really blame you.

Since June 2, the Dodgers have played 16 total games, with 7 decided by a single run. They’re 5-2 in those games straight up.

AVOID.

I am looking for the total to come down right on the number. If there’s a lean, it’s ever so slightly to the Over, as the Over has gone 7-2-1 in the Dodgers’ last 10 games and 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5. If you go that route, go lightly.

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