Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Go ‘0 For June’

What Does A Cooler Atlantic Mean?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may fail to produce its first storm through the rest of June for the first time in 11 years. But that doesn’t mean the rest of the season won’t pose dangers to the U.S. and Caribbean.

‘0 For June,’ Unlike Last Year

-While the Eastern Pacific has already generated five storms and two hurricanes, including Erick, we’re still waiting for the first named storm, “Andrea”, to develop in the Atlantic Basin.

-One year ago, Alberto first became a tropical storm on June 19 in the Gulf, then Beryl exploded from a tropical storm to a Cat 4 hurricane by June 30 in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

(MORE: Beryl Among Most Recent Hurricane Names Retired)

Is This Unusual?

The short answer is, “For recent years, yes, but in general, not really.”

-Since the satellite era (1966), the season’s first storm arrived, on average, around June 10. Over a 30-year period from 1991 through 2020, that average date was June 20, according to the National Hurricane Center.

-Twenty-seven of 59 hurricane seasons since 1966 have failed to generate a June storm. That last happened in 2018 and 2019.

-This may be the first season to not produce a single storm in June – or before June – since 2014.

-But the last five seasons from 2020 through 2024 each produced at least one June storm. Four of those seasons, including the past two, produced multiple June storms.

Why So Quiet?

-June and November are typically the two quietest months of hurricane season. By a measure known as accumulated cyclone energy or ACE, only about 2% of the Atlantic hurricane season’s activity occurs through June.

-This year, a combination of strong wind shear over the western Gulf and Caribbean Sea, higher than average surface pressure, more stable air suppressing thunderstorms, and less ocean heat than last year are keeping a lid on development, so far.

Does This Matter For The Rest Of The Season?

Given this “0 for June,” there is less of a chance that 2025’s season will be as frenetic as, say, 2020, 2017 or 2005.

-Crawford also found that seven of eight seasons with at least 10 hurricanes also had at least one June storm.

(MORE: When Was The Last ‘Quiet’ Hurricane Season?)

‘It Only Takes One’

Here’s what happened in the last two seasons without a June storm:

-2019: Another 17 storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes formed, including Cat 5 Dorian’s catastrophic raking of the northwest Bahamas.

-2018: Another 14 storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes formed, including Florence’s catastrophic rainfall in the Carolinas, followed by Michael’s Cat 5 landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Each of those three hurricanes was so destructive and/or deadly that their names were retired from future use.

Despite potentially somewhat reduced numbers for the season overall, the Atmospheric G2 team is forecasting three hurricanes to make a U.S. landfall in 2025. And it only takes one storm to strike where you are to make any season memorably bad.

Prepare Now, Regardless

The bottom line is we’re still very early in the season, with the most active months of August and September ahead.

Now – not in the days before a hurricane strikes – is a good time to refresh or develop a plan.

That includes knowing if you live in an evacuation zone, assembling a disaster kit at home, making your home as resilient as possible, checking on your insurance policy and making an inventory of your belongings.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.