Odds are against Padres making run for World Series title

Apologies, Padres fans. Today’s column will be a bummer.

The topic is the 2025 World Series trophy, and whether it’s realistic to believe the Padres can win it.

Pondering hard questions about earning Rob Manfred’s hunk of metal is what many MLB teams’ top leaders do at this time of the year, what with the season nearly half done and both the All-Star break and the July 30 trade deadline looming.

Here are two of the big questions these teams consider:

“Can our team win the World Series this year, without requiring numerous major miracles?”

And …

“If we can, what areas of our team need to be improved via trade?”

The first question is short on specifics for a good reason.

Even the best teams realize that winning the trophy is something of a crapshoot. Though the best teams may not require numerous major miracles, every team will need to catch some breaks to get the trophy.

Consider: The Dodgers and the Yankees are the only teams given at least a 10% chance by FanGraphs analytics and several oddsmakers. Even the high-flying Tigers and Mets attract only single-digit percentages, at 9.3% and 8.2%, as does a division-leading Cubs squad, at 5.7%, that entered Tuesday with MLB’s best run differential.

The Dodgers, even with MLB’s best roster and a well-regarded farm system from which to deal, are given just a 21.4% chance to win it all. The Yankees are at 14.4%.

Now for the Padres — and the bummer.

Their odds to win it all are 1.4%. And while that number certainly could improve, I see their odds as worse than those of the previous three Padres teams — especially when the respective farm systems are considered.

Let’s revisit those three teams quickly, while appreciating that, in terms of realistic trophy contention, 2022-24 stands as the best three-year stretch in Padres history.

Start with June 2022.

The Padres’ robust trade currency was a critical piece to the optimism, a sharp contrast from now. Ample young talent strengthened president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s hand in the summer trade market. Think of Jackson Merrill, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Gasser, Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana.

Preller used some of those chips to trade for star outfielder Juan Soto, closer Josh Hader and first baseman Josh Bell. They joined a good Padres team led by Manny Machado, Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez. A trip to the franchise’s first National League Championship Series since 1998 followed, but the team fell seven wins short of the World Series trophy.

The ‘23 club was even more talented. It welcomed Fernando Tatis Jr. back from an 80-game PED suspension and multiple surgeries. And it had Soto for a full season.

Those Padres drew the best preseason World Series odds in franchise history.

Though he had several bad stretches, Soto led the team in batting average with runners in scoring position, home runs and OPS. Blake Snell won the Cy Young Award. But the 2023 club never really got going. Despite having MLB’s third-highest payroll and finishing second in MLB in run prevention, the Padres fell short of the expanded playoffs.

The 2024 squad had MLB’s best record after the All-Star break and finished with 93 wins. It beat the Braves in the wild card series. Led by Tatis, Darvish and summer acquisitions Tanner Scott and Jason Adam, the Padres got within one Division Series victory of eliminating the Dodgers. L.A. won those games, 8-0 and 2-0, and went on to win the World Series. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has said he believed the Padres would’ve won that trophy had they finished his team off.

The bummer now is this: I see the current Padres team as being less capable than the last three Padres teams, and I don’t think it has a realistic shot at winning the 2025 World Series.

This club would need several major miracles to get it done.

Michael King was the pitcher the Padres could least afford to go down for a long time, and now, due to a shoulder nerve issue attributed to awkward sleeping position at a suburban Atlanta hotel, it appears he won’t return before the All-Star break. Even if King returns and the Padres earn a wild-card spot, I’m not bullish on the team having the pitching depth to win 13 postseason games. King and Dylan Cease can become free agents in November. The arm strain of trying to win a World Series may have to be weighed against the financial stakes of free agency.

Offensively, turnarounds are needed from veterans Xander Bogaerts, 32, Luis Arraez, 28, and Jake Cronenworth, 31.

Stiff headwinds confront each player.

Bogaerts has seen his slugging percentage dip in each of his last five seasons and is trending toward a sixth.

That scouts regard Bogaerts as one of MLB’s most diligent workers is actually concerning. His troubles can’t be attributed to slacking off.

Bogaerts hit .307 with 38 doubles and 15 home runs with the Red Sox in the season before Preller and chairman Peter Seidler signed him to an 11-year, $280-million contract. He has come nowhere near that standard with San Diego.

Arraez is not putting the sweet spot on the ball as often this year, falling from the 98th percentile to the 69th percentile. His value is driven mostly by batting average, but his expected batting average has fallen from .310 to .271.

Cronenworth was off to a hot start before a Cubs fastball cracked his ribs. He returned May 9 and had a big game at Denver. In the following 33 games entering Tuesday, he batted .215 with a .652 OPS.

I could bring up other gloomy stuff, but let’s finish with realistic optimism.

The Padres have a fair shot to regroup and win one of three wild-card playoff spots, even if Preller may have to get a little bit lucky in the trade market.

Given the opportunity to win a fourth wild card in six years, what course of action should Preller pursue?

Work to improve the team, but hold on to all of your core prospects, led by Leo De Vries. Continue to shop in the low-cost markets, where lefty slugger Gavin Sheets was found. Sell off a reliever or two at some point, bringing back prospects and lowering the Padres’ luxury tax exposure, which, per FanGraphs, now stands above the second threshold by $1.1 million.

And then? Well, miracles do happen. Just don’t count on them.

Originally Published: June 17, 2025 at 6:00 PM PDT