A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts over 70 mph threaten Michigan today

The fine-tuned severe weather forecast today highlights what parts of Michigan could have severe thunderstorms, and what types of severe weather we can expect.

The severe thunderstorms should develop over west-central and southwest Lower Michigan sometime between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. and move into eastern Lower Michigan between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m.

This timing means the severe thunderstorms are going to be working with the most heat, humidity and energy of the hottest part of the day. Unfortunately the timing makes severe weather more likely here in Michigan.

The Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) early morning forecast is mostly unchanged from yesterday. In severe weather forecasts SPC gives us five levels of likelihood for severe storms. Part of southern Lower Michigan is in a level 3 risk, also called Enhanced Risk. Surrounding the level 3 risk is a large area of level 2 risk. The northern half of Lower Michigan just has a level 1 risk, or marginal risk of an isolated lower-end severe storm.

The orange shaded area has a five percent chance of a few tornadoes within the orange area. There is also a 30 percent chance of wind gusts over 70 mph. This includes areas just south of Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Jackson, Lansing, Ann Arbor and Monroe.

The yellow area still has a five percent chance of a tornado but a lower 15 percent chance of damaging wind gusts. This includes Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland, Oakland County and all of the Detroit area.

Hail up to one inch in diameter is possible, but looked at as a lesser possibility.

Park your cars in the garage if you can. Don’t stray out on the water or go hiking in the woods this afternoon or evening. Keep close to where you can move to safe, sturdy shelter in a short 15 minute timeframe.

Stay updated with any tweaks to the severe weather forecast at MLive.com/weather.