Phillies at Marlins odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (42-29) visit the Miami Marlins (28-41) Monday in the opener of a 4-game series. First pitch at Loan Depot Park in Miami is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Phillies have rattled off 4 straight victories, sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays and winning the series finale 11-4 on Sunday. Despite its win streak, Philadelphia is just 5-6 over its last 11 games. It has lost 5 straight games on the road as well.

The Marlins have won 3 games in a row after taking down the Washington Nationals 3-1 Sunday as a +139 moneyline underdog. 1B Eric Wagaman led the way with 2 RBIs. Miami is 5-8 over its last 13 games.

Phillies at Marlins projected starters

RHP Mick Abel vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara

Abel (1-0, 2.35 ERA) makes his fourth career start. The 13-year-old rookie has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 15 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H (3 HR), 3 BB, 3 K in 8-4 home loss vs. Chicago Cubs on Tuesday
• Career road stats: 0-0, 1.69 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 0.56 WHIP, 3.4 K/9 in 2-1 road loss June 4 to the Toronto Blue Jays
• Made his rookie debut on May 18 in a 1-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates

Alcantara (3-7, 7.14 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 63 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H (0 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 3-2 road win vs. Pirates on Tuesday
• 2025 home stats: 2-3, 5.30 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 4 HR, 14 BB, 27 K, 1.18 WHIP, 16.5 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 6-9, 3.78 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 20 starts

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Phillies at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Phillies at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 4

BET PHILLIES (-130).

The Marlins are just 2-8 in the last 10 games which Alcantara has started. He has allowed at least 4 ER in 6 of his last 8 starts. While Miami has performed well as of late, it has scored more than 4 runs just once in its last 7 games.

The Phillies, who have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games, have been surging and sit second in the NL East, 2 1/2 games back of the New York Mets. They have the fifth-best record as a road favorite at 16-10. Back PHILLIES (-130).

PASS.

Neither side is worth playing here. The Phillies (+125) are too risky with Abel on the mound while the Marlins (-150) are too expensive to consider.

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

Neither the Phillies nor Marlins are starting an ace with the rookie Abel coming off his worst performance of the season. Philadelphia has gone 3-1-1 O/U in its last 5 games, scoring at least 7 runs in 3 of its last 4 contests.

The Marlins are 7-6 O/U in Alcantara’s 13 starts and 36-33 O/U on the season. Considering those trends, take OVER 8.5 (-110).

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