Who Will Win the Club World Cup 2025? Opta Supercomputer Predictions

Who will win the first
expanded edition of the FIFA Club
World Cup? We won’t know for sure until the final on 13 July,
so for now it’s time to look at the Opta Supercomputer
pre-tournament predictions.

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The FIFA Club World Cup has been running for 25 years, but the
tournament has never before been as big as it is for the upcoming
2025 edition.

An expanded version of the competition, which was first held in
2000 and has gradually increased in size and scope since, will
contain 32 teams from six confederations in a football feast hosted
in the United States, just weeks after the regular domestic club
season came to an end.

Starting on 14 June at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami and running
until the final on 13 July in New Jersey, several of the world’s
biggest teams are set to do battle, with some of the sides involved
already frantically completing transfers and coaching changes to
prepare.

The Opta supercomputer predicts it will be the leading European
sides – including UEFA Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain
and five-time CWC victors Real Madrid – who will prove to be the
teams to beat, but there are many other notable global powerhouses
bidding for glory, including Brazilian side Palmeiras, Saudi Pro
League standouts Al-Hilal, plus Argentine greats Boca Juniors and
River Plate.

Three MLS teams will also be competing on home soil, with the
tournament’s ‘host team’ Inter Miami and former CONCACAF Champions
League winners Seattle Sounders recently being joined by Los
Angeles FC, who qualified just two weeks before the event by
winning a play-off against Club América following the removal of
Mexican side Club León.

The supercomputer has simulated the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
competition 10,000 times and the Opta prediction model has collated
these findings and confirmed its pre-tournament percentages. So,
without further ado, let’s look at the predictor numbers.

Club
World Cup 2025 Predictions: The Highlights

• Paris Saint-Germain (18.5%) are named
  favourites to win the FIFA Club World after their stunning
  Champions League success last month.
• Our predictive model sees PSG as the most likely winners for
  what will be their first CWC participation, although the French
  side only came out marginally ahead of Premier League heavyweights
  Manchester City (17.8%).
• Those teams are in a group of ‘Big Six’ contenders, which also
  includes German champions Bayern Munich (12.8%),
  UCL runners-up Inter (12.3%), five-time winners
  Real Madrid (9.8%) and 2021 victors
  Chelsea (8.4%).
• Borussia Dortmund, Atlético Madrid, Juventus
  and Benfica are the other sides who come into the
  tournament with realistic hopes of reaching the latter stages.
• Clubs from Europe are expected to dominate the competition but
  star-studded Al-Hilal and Inter
  Miami – playing on home soil with Lionel Messi in their
  ranks – are among the teams seen as most likely to spring a
  surprise on the UEFA teams.

The Big
Six? Club World Cup Favourites

Paris
Saint-Germain

PSG come
into their first ever appearance at the Club World Cup with plenty
of momentum, having thumped Inter 5-0 in a record-breaking
Champions League final victory just over a week ago, capping a
memorable continental campaign that also saw them eliminate Premier
League trio Liverpool, Aston Villa and Arsenal.

After finally ending their wait for European glory, PSG are in
with a real chance of adding an international global title to their
growing list of honours.

The presence of Atlético Madrid alongside them in Group B means
the path to topping their pool will not be straightforward, though,
with those two meeting on 15 June at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

Botafogo and Seattle Sounders, the other two teams in Group B, are
stronger than some of the sides they could have drawn, so a
competitive first round for all four is expected, even if the two
European giants will be confident of progression.

PSG reached the last 16 in 91.6% of our simulations, and once
they are in the knockout stage, will be a team everyone wants to
avoid.

With their projected last-16 clash being against a team from
Group A – a pool without one of the leading clubs – Luis Enrique’s
men were the only team who made it to the last eight in more than
three-quarters of tournament projections (75.4%).

They are also most likely club to make the semi-finals (49.2%)
and final (30.9%), while their chance of going all the way is
18.5%, with fans in the States licking their lips at the prospect
of watching the likes of Ousmane
Dembélé and Désiré
Doué in peak form.

Manchester City

Before a ball has been kicked, Manchester City are seen as the
biggest challengers to PSG.

That may come as a surprise to some after a disappointing season
that ended without a major trophy for Pep Guardiola’s side, but Man
City are defending champions in this competition and arrive in the
United States with one of the strongest squads.

They triumphed the last time this tournament was held in 2023
courtesy of a thumping 4-0 win over Fluminense, while Guardiola
also holds a proud record in the Club World Cup.

No coach has won the trophy more than Guardiola (four),
succeeding in spells at three different clubs (with Barcelona in
2009 and 2011, Bayern in 2013 and Man City in 2023).

Guardiola won all eight of his matches in the previous CWC
format, with his teams scoring 25 goals and conceding only two.

Anything other than Man City and Juventus progressing from Group
G would be a big surprise to the supercomputer. City win their
group in 71.3% of scenarios (Juventus prevail in 27.1%) and
Guardiola’s men have an enormous 97.2% chance of progressing to the
last 16 – a higher percentage than any other team.

They continue to the final in 29.6% of our tournament
projections.

Man City’s overall tournament win probability of 17.8% puts them
narrowly behind PSG, but a good distance clear of the other
contenders, so don’t sleep on the English club as they bid to atone
for what proved to be a frustrating 2024-25 campaign.

Bayern Munich

Apart from Real Madrid, two-time winners Bayern
Munich are the only other team taking part this year to have
won the CWC more than once.

After taking the Bundesliga title back from domestic rivals
Bayer Leverkusen, Vincent Kompany will hope Harry
Kane can fire his side to more silverware after the England
captain revelled in breaking his own trophy duck.

Bayern will hope having an opening game against Auckland City,
who sit in 4,960th place in the Opta
Global Power Rankings, gives them a kind start in Cincinnati
and allows them to ease their way into the tournament.

But while the German champions are third favourites to go all
the way, they are just the seventh-most likely to top their group,
as they are expected to face a tough scrap with Benfica in Group C,
which also contains a live threat in the form of Boca Juniors.

However, Bayern are still seen as near certainties (93.3%) to
finish in the top two and progress to the knockout stage.

And with a 23.7% chance of making the final and a tournament win
probability of 12.8%, Bayern are very much contenders according to
our predictive model.

Inter Milan

It was a tumultuous finish to the season for Internazionale,
whose heavy loss to PSG came after they were pipped to the post by
Napoli in a dramatic Serie A title race.

Simone Inzaghi has since left the club after a successful spell
as head coach, taking charge of Al-Hilal ahead of this tournament,
so it’s fair to say the Italian side’s preparation has not been
perfect.

Still, across all 32 teams, Inter are rated as the most likely
team to win their group at a huge 79.0%, helped by them receiving a
very generous Group E draw.

A 74.4% chance of making the last eight, meanwhile, puts them
second only to PSG, so expect the Nerazzurri to be there or
thereabouts in a major competition once again.

The Opta supercomputer was right to consistently suggest Inter
represented under-the-radar value throughout the UCL, and they are
given a decent 12.3% chance of lifting this trophy at MetLife
Stadium.

Real Madrid

Real
Madrid come in as the fifth-most likely winners with a 9.8%
chance of going all the way in the competition.

It might come as a surprise to some that Los Blancos are ranked
behind four other sides, but they fell comfortably short in La Liga
and the Champions League this past season.

Still, few will be writing off their chances. New boss Xabi
Alonso will be eager to make a strong start after joining from
Leverkusen, as will new addition
Trent Alexander-Arnold who arrives in time from Liverpool,
while Kylian
Mbappé is on a high after winning the European Golden Shoe
following a spectacular finish to the domestic season that saw him
end with 31 La Liga goals.

His fellow Madrid attacker Vinícius
Júnior loves this competition, having scored twice in the 2022
final against Al-Hilal in a player-of-the-match performance, while
he also shone in December’s Intercontinental Cup final against
Pachuca.

Both those teams are with Madrid in Group H, which also contains
Salzburg, so Madrid go in as strong favourites with a 76.4% chance
of topping the pool.

Madrid are more likely than not (55.2%) to make the
quarter-finals, from which point no team will relish facing
them.

Chelsea

The last of the main contenders are Chelsea,
who battled to a fourth-place Premier League finish and previously
beat Palmeiras to win this competition in 2021.

Chelsea are seen as almost certain (93.4%) to navigate their way
through a relatively kind Group D line-up. They will open against
Los Angeles FC in Atlanta before facing Flamengo and ES Tunis,
respectively, with both those games at Lincoln Financial Field.

Like Madrid, it is more likely than not that Chelsea will reach
in the last eight (56% chance), at which point they would be right
in the mix for glory, particularly if Cole
Palmer can recapture his peak form.

Their ultimate chance of success at the pre-tournament stage is
8.5%, and, as the sixth and final members of the main contenders,
there is then a clear gap behind them.

Best of the Rest

The next-best candidates, all of whom have a victory chance of
between 3.3% and 5.4% are Borussia
Dortmund, Atlético
Madrid, Juventus
and Benfica.

It’s Dortmund who narrowly claim seventh spot
in our projections. They are helped by having a kind Group F draw,
with the added bonus that their projected last-16 clash would come
against the runners-up of Group E, potentially River Plate or
Monterrey if that pool is topped by Inter.

For that reason, there are only four teams rated as more likely
than Dortmund to make the last eight, with their chance of reaching
that stage being a healthy 61.1%.

Having finished as runners-up and quarter-finalists in the last
two Champions League seasons, Dortmund (5.4%) will be eyeing
another strong run in a similar competition.

Atlético Madrid come in at
5.1% to go all the way. Like PSG, they are seen as benefitting from
having a possible last-16 tie against a team from Group A – a pool
that does not contain any of the tournament favourites.

They will hope Julián
Alvarez can continue his proud record from the CWC in 2023.
Then at Man City, he was involved in more goals (three) than any
other player at the tournament, as he scored twice and delivered
one assist – all coming in the final.

Juventus (3.6%) and Benfica
(3.3%) are a little further back but still feature among
the 10 most likely winning teams.

Juve will need to start fast as their third and final Group G
match will come against Manchester City, while it’s a similar
scenario for Benfica, who will conclude their Group C campaign with
a clash against Bayern.

The Italian side have an 87.4% chance of progressing from their
group, with Benfica’s chance of making the last 16 only a touch
lower at 81.7%.

Club World Cup
Outsiders

Porto (0.6%) are the only other team with a
greater than 0.5% chance of emerging triumphant, which means the
top 11 most-favoured teams in Opta’s predictions for the tournament
are all from Europe.

Under the previous CWC formats, 17 of the last 18 winners have
come from UEFA, and the supercomputer strongly expects that run to
continue.

The only European team who appear further in the bottom half of
the 32 clubs are Salzburg, who have just a 0.1%
chance of victory and face some tough opponents in Group H.

Beyond the leading group of 11 teams, there are five global
teams who the supercomputer thinks could enjoy a good tournament,
even if the system expects going all the way to win it will prove
beyond them.

Those sides are Al-Hilal, Inter Miami, River, Palmeiras
and Flamengo. That quintet has been very tightly matched
in our predictive model in the weeks leading up to the tournament,
regularly interchanging positions as we ran our projections.

With Inzaghi installed at the helm, four-time AFC Champions
League winners Al-Hilal could benefit from having Salzburg in their
group and are seen as the most likely team to join Real Madrid in
qualifying from that pool. They made the knockout stage in 50.5% of
our simulations.

Al-Hilal have won six of the last nine Saudi Pro League titles
and while they lost out to Al-Ittihad this season, their
star-studded squad – led by captain Salem Al-Dawsari – contains big
names like Aleksandar Mitrović, Sergej Milinković-Savić,
Rúben Neves and Marcos Leonardo, so they will be confident of
mixing it with Europe’s best.

Inter Miami and Palmeiras will both play in a highly competitive
Group A. While Porto are named as marginal favourites in that pool,
their chances of winning it are just 33.7%, so all four teams –
including Egyptian side and CWC regulars Al Ahly – are contenders
to progress.

Lionel Messi will look to continue his strong track record in
this competition to boost the hopes of Miami – he won with
Barcelona in each of his last three CWC campaigns and has scored
five goals in as many CWC matches.

The Argentina star enters the tournament on the back of a
stunning MLS performance against Columbus Crew, having scored twice
and added two assists in a 5-1 victory.

Of the five teams who round out the top 16, River Plate are the
most likely to reach the quarter-finals, being handed a 19.7%
chance of doing so. Group E is one they will be hopeful of
progressing from, as the top seeds are Inter and they are given the
edge by our model to see off Monterrey for second spot.

Flamengo, meanwhile, are given a 51.8% chance of progressing
from Group D and have the chance to make a strong start when they
open against ES Tunis, projected to finish bottom of the group, in
Philadelphia on 16 June.

There were two teams who, unfortunately, did not even win the
tournament once from our 10,000 simulations. They were the sole OFC
representatives, Auckland City, and 2024 AFC
Champions League winners Al Ain.

It was little better for Urawa Red Diamonds and
Ulsan HD, who each lifted the trophy once, while
CAF duo ES Tunis and Wydad AC
triumphed on two occasions each.

Mexican team Pachuca – who were comfortably
beaten 3-0 by Real Madrid in the Intercontinental Cup in December –
complete a group of seven sides who are seen as the weakest in the
tournament by our predictive model.

So, if you are looking for a surprising underdog to emerge from
the bottom half of our tournament rankings, it might instead be
worth considering the likes of Al Ahly, LAFC, Mamelodi
Sundowns, Fluminense and Monterrey, who
are all given a chance of greater than one in three to reach the
knockout stage.

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